>Gillard surges ahead of Abbott

On Centrebet, Prime Minister Julia Gillard is $1.28 to be Labor leader at the time of the next election. These very short odds no doubt reflect her convincing win in the leadership ballot. Given the size of that win, and considering Kevin Rudd’s concession speech, these odds may even understate the strength of her position. She perhaps should be $1.05 or so.

Interestingly, the Leader of the Opposition Tony Abbott is $1.36 to hold on to his role by the time of the next election. For those not familiar with bookies odds, this means that Mr Abbott is more likely to be dumped as leader of the Opposition than Ms Gillard is to be replaced as Prime Minister ahead of the next election.

Interesting to see how these odds trend over the next little while.