The 2013 Election: Who’s Vulnerable?

The Antony Green election pendulum points to a number of issues which might make for another close result at the Federal election in 2013.

• Labor holds only 8 seats with a margin of 2.5% or less, while the Coalition holds 14 seats with a margin of 2.5% or less. 

• Labor holds only 14 seats with a margin under 4%, while the Coalition holds 19 seats with a margin of 4% or less.

• Looking at even wider parameters and the pendulum shows that Labor holds 25 seats with a majority of 6.0% or less, while the Coalition has 30 seats that, on a bad day, are vulnerable with a majority of 6.0% or less.

I am not sure quite what to make of this all, other than to note that if Labor loses a number of the seats that would be appear most vulnerable (margins under 4%), it might get lucky and have a chance of picking up some of the current Coalition seats that were close in 2010.   This is particularly the case with the knowledge that uniform swings never happen.