2013 Election Betting: The Latest
There appear to be seven betting agencies offering odds for the next Federal election.
While it is difficult to be sure how much flow of money drives changes in the odds, there have been some big shifts in a range of markets especially which party will win in 2013 and who will lead Labor and the Liberal Party in that race.
In terms of the party to win the next election, the Coalition’s odds have widened over recent months.
Around the middle of the year the best odds for a Coalition victory were a Black Caviar like $1.20 – the best odds now are $1.45 with Luxbet. For Labor, who were as wide as $6.00 around the middle of year, the best odds on offer are Sportingbet and Centrebet at $2.88.
The net result is that the Coalition is still a hot favourite to win, but is a long way from the near certainty that the betting odds suggested even a few months ago.
In terms of who will lead the major parties at the next election, there have also been some significiant swings.
Julia Gillard and Kevin Rudd have, at various times, been close to equal favourites. With Gillard’s and Labor’s bounce in the polls, Gillard is now a hot favourite to stay leader at the time the next election is called. Sportingbet is offering the best odds for Gillard ($1.33) while punters can secure $3.75 on Rudd to be leader from Luxbet.
For the Liberal Party, Tony Abbott has gone from as short at $1.10 earlier this year to now be as wide as $1.50 (Sportingbet) to still be leader at the time of the next election. Malcomlm Turrnbull is as short as $2.30, although Luxbet are offering the widest odds at $3.05. Joe Hockey remains around $10.00.
In all of this, is appears the changes in the odds follow new polling information and not, this far out from election day, betting markets being a good guide as to who will win.